Forecast vs. Actual: air cargo in 2019 and 2020

Policy Pulse - George Anjaparidze - 10 February 2020

We got 3 out of 4 predictions right for air cargo performance in 2019 (see table). While not perfect, it is far better than established industry forecasters.

Table: Air cargo 2019 forecast vs. actual

Source: Forecast performance is based on Veritas Global forecast, actual performance is based on IATA reporting of year end data and IHS Markit high frequency indicators.

For 2020, we expect air cargo traffic performance to grow by about 3% to 4%

On the macroeconomic front we expect to see positive lagged effects in 2020 from monetary policy easing we saw in 2019. High frequency indicators show the global economy continued to accelerate in January 2020 for the third straight month. However, trade performance has struggled to recover. Overall trade tensions are easing but trade relationships have not normalized and are unlikely to in the foreseeable future. Decisions by some central banks to pursue less loose monetary policy in early 2020, if further tightened, add downside risks to our forecast.

One-off factors and policy risks also influence our outlook. The coronavirus outbreaks have disrupted supply chains and on-net we expect this to have a favorable impact on air cargo demand. However, the sector faces unprecedented level of policy risks.

Policy issues in 2020 will have a major impact on air cargo demand this year as well as the more distant future. In addition to trade tensions, negotiations at the WTO will specifically impact air cargo performance, including negotiations on whether to extend the customs duties moratorium on international e-commerce, compliance with tariff policies of the Information Technology Agreement and implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement. Negative outcomes of these negotiations add downside risks to our forecast.

Furthermore, growing consumer awareness on climate change will chip away at demand, especially if industry is unable to improve perceptions and sustainability credentials of the air cargo product.

About Veritas Global: Our vision is to have a positive impact on the world through truthful advice informed by robust analysis. We are a premier provider of tailored solutions on climate change, international conflict economics and infrastructure.

#aviation #trade #outlook #aircargo #ecommerce #WTO #sustainability #climatechange #risks #logistics #economy #economics #coronavirus

Air cargo executives signal optimism for 2020

Policy Pulse - 25 November 2019 - George Anjaparidze

A poll of executives attending the TIACA Executive Summit suggests improving conditions for air cargo in 2020. The Veritas Global poll, held in Budapest on 21 November 2019, reveals that 72% of executives expect an improvement in global trade in 2020. While 28% expect a deterioration in the outlook with a downturn in global trade.

Expectations of air cargo executives for global trade in 2020

Source: Veritas Global. Note: each icon represents 10% of executives participating in poll

Sentiment of executives expecting improvement

67% of executives expect a moderate acceleration in trade. With accommodative monetary policy being the key enabler for the improvement in economic conditions. This assertion is in line with data tracked by the Council on Foreign Relations through the Global Monetary Policy Tracker. It tracks monetary policy conditions across 54 economies and shows that current monetary policy easing is near levels observed during the financial crisis.

5% of executives expect a strong upturn in global trade, which could be made possible if the accommodative monetary policy stance is combined with an easing in trade tensions and reduced policy uncertainty. Under this backdrop, there is also an expectation that investors and corporations would start to spend their cash reserves on investments, thereby having a particularly favorable impact on trade.

Sentiment of executives expecting deterioration

28% of executives were expecting a downturn in world trade, due to escalating trade tensions, rising protectionist measures and the possibility of geopolitical disruptions.

Background to poll

Prior to the poll, George Anjaparidze, CEO of Veritas Global, highlighted the rise in volatility and pointed to concerning performance of leading indicators (new export orders and economic policy uncertainty). However, the outlook was not entirely negative as there was room for some cautious optimism for Q4 of 2019. The assertive response of Central Banks to the IMF decision to cut global economic forecasts, could help improve the economic backdrop. Following the October IMF World Economic Outlook report, Central Banks further loosened monetary policy and communicated that they would not tighten any time soon. This should reflect positively on the near-term outlook. Expectations for overall 2019 air cargo traffic performance is to have negative growth in low single digits (3-4%). However, performance should improve in Q4 of 2019 and compared to Q4 of 2018 there is even a reasonable possibility that growth turns positive for the final quarter (October data may continue to show weakness but a pick-up in November and December should not be ruled out).

The forecast for for 2020 was more uncertain. Three possible scenarios for the outlook were presented and executives were invited to vote on the one that best represented their expectation for 2020. Results of the poll are summarized in the chart above.

#TIACA #aircargo #aviation #Outlook #2020outlook #forecast #economics

2020 outlook: turbulence ahead for air cargo

Policy Pulse - 8 October 2019 - George Anjaparidze

Forecasters are licking their wounds after another year of missed projections. All the major crystal ball gazers got their 2019 figures wrong. Growth of 4 to 5% in FTKs will not materialize. The latest quarterly report from the International Air Transport Association indicates that, so far, industry-wide FTKs fell by about 4% in 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. While the pace of the decline in recent months has slowed, it is still too soon to be optimistic.

New export orders have fallen to their lowest levels since October 2012. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high – as measured by the frequency of phrases in press reports on monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty (see Chart). If economic uncertainty deters investment, it can have disproportionately adverse impact on trade and in particular air cargo demand, since capital goods that make up investment tend to have higher import content and are also more likely to create demand for air cargo.

Given this backdrop, managing volatility and policy uncertainty can make or break a business.

At the Executive Summit of the International Air Cargo Association, George Anjaparidze, CEO of Veritas Global, will moderate a discussion on the outlook for 2020 and approaches to managing volatility. What can industry associations do to help their members manage volatility related risks? Is there a role for policy makers? What can the logistics supply chain do to respond? What tools are available?

For more information on the event check out: TIACA Executive Summit

About Veritas Global: Our vision is to have a positive impact on the world through truthful advice informed by robust analysis. We are a premier provider of tailored solutions on climate change, international conflict economics and infrastructure. 

#aircargo #economicoutlook #economics #aviation #airlines #trade #freightforwarders